The playoffs begin this Friday in the CIF San Diego Section and we have a pretty good idea who will advance to the next round. So will you, if you take the time to read our thorough analysis of the first round. All games are Friday and games that you can hear on KBCsports.com are noted.

 

Division 1

Wow, what a match-up in the first round between two teams that are much better than their records would suggest. El Camino has the best wide receiver in the County in Nelson Rosario. He’s big, strong and fast! He’s a tremendous athlete and the key to the Wildcats this season. Rancho Bernardo has the same type of kid in quarterback Gerald Kemp. Kemp is big, strong and fast himself. Plus, he doesn’t need anyone to get him the ball. Having said that, Rosario has a lot more help around him than Kemp does. The Wildcats defense is very physical and they have just enough offense to get things done. El Camino also plays very well at home (they should have beaten Poway earlier this year). Prediction: The Wildcats should advance for a re-match with the Titans.

 

The Warriors are back in the playoffs for the first time in a couple of years and got in by default. They broke a 13-game losing streak earlier this year and then shocked Rancho Bernardo and were fortunate when Torrey Pines missed the post-season for the first time in a looonnnngggg time. Fallbrook has decent athletes on both sides of the ball, but nothing spectacular on either side. Mira Mesa can play with anybody, but at times also has problems beating anybody. They struggled mightily when first-string QB Kevin Ozier went down with an injury during the middle of the season. However, when he’s in the game, the Marauders can score at will. Fallbrook has trouble against good offenses and the Warriors small defensive line will get worn down. Prediction: Mira Mesa cruises into the second round.

 

 

Calexico is back in the post-season, just like the Bulldogs predicted. During our broadcast of the CIF SDS Finals last season, players from Calexico were listening in and they came into our live chat and wrote us a note saying “look out for us in the playoffs in 2007.” The Bulldogs beat the teams they were supposed to beat (Southwest, Palo Verde) and lost games one might expect them to lose (Brawley, Central, Ramona). Rancho Buena Vista did the same thing… sort of. The Longhorns lost to Carlsbad, Oceanside and Otay Ranch, and then whipped everyone else, including Vista in the finale. The Longhorns played a pretty tough schedule (as everyone in the Avocado League does) and are battle-tested – even if they haven’t won all the games. Prediction: Expect RBV to advance.

 

Some people thought the Spartans would get a first-round bye and really be a force in the post-season. Unfortunately, Chula Vista struggled down the stretch and the injury to Taimi Tutogi really hurts. The fullback did everything for Chula Vista and led the team in scoring. If he can’t go, the Spartans are in trouble. This is a big game for the South County teams. If the Spartans can win, over a North County team, it would go a long way to helping the reputations of the teams down south. Somewhat amazing to me that Vista slipped so far down. I mean, this is the team that beat Mission Viejo earlier this year. But this is also a team that got shut out by RBV and lost to El Camino. Prediction: The Panthers have a history of great defense and playing tough North County opponents all season will serve them well as they should pull off the upset on the road.

 

Division 2

The Falcons finished tied for second in the Eastern League and were high-flying in their final two games with wild wins over St. Augustine and Patrick Henry. Quarterback Robert Forcier flies by the seat of his pants and makes plays that cause fans to say, “Did you see that!” as he did while throwing for a combined 698 yards in his final two games. Forcier’s a great talent and can make the big play (our play of the week last week against St. Augustine), and also, the big mistake (three interceptions in his first three passes against Poway). Still, as one of the most exciting players in the San Diego Section, he makes Scripps Ranch a dangerous team. The Foothillers come out of the Grossmont North after a second place finish in which they beat just two teams with a winning record (El Capitan and Montgomery). Khalid Waters is a TD machine with 11 on the season and the Foothillers can run and pass the ball equally well. Prediction: If Forcier can make more big plays than mistakes, the Falcons will move on.

 

This is a match up of two Swiss Army Knife quarterbacks: Hoover’s Corey Trisby and San Pasqual’s Daniel Minamide. Each does things a little differently. Trisby lines up in the shotgun, take a few read steps and either throws the ball deep, or plays “catch me if you can” while he scrambles all over the field. Minamide takes the snap, and then runs the option – either pitching the ball to one of his running backs or zig-zagging down the field playing “catch me if you can.” Both kids are exciting players who make things happen. Prediction: The host Golden Eagles, though, have a lot more than just Minamide, which is why they will advance.

 

 

The young Wolverines, under first-year coach Mike Woodward, got into the playoffs because they squeaked past Serra in the season finale and also scored a huge win over Mt. Carmel early. Westview, has nice players on either side of the ball, but turnovers have been their Achilles heel. Quarterback Mike Hachadorian has thrown 16 interceptions and the Wolverines don’t have the running game to allow them to not pass that much. West Hills, under first-year coach Casey Ash, has focused more on the run this season and the Wolfpack won the Grossmont North Conference as a result. Prediction: The Wolfpack’s defense allowed just one touchdown in the final three games, which is why I like West Hills to win.

 

Due to the wildfires, and their scheduled bye in the final week of the season, the Sundevils have played one game since October 20^th and have not won a game since October 5th. Mt. Carmel started out 3-1 and then lost four of five and backed into the playoffs. However, in their final regular season game, Sundevils runningback Joey Demartino racked up over 300 total yards and three touchdowns against a very good Poway defense. The Barons of Bonita Vista have looked impressive – like when they manhandled Mission Bay, Mt. Miguel and Chula Vista – and looked ordinary – like when they lost to RBV and Eastlake. Prediction: Bonita Vista did not lose to a San Diego Section Division II team this season and having the home field advantage should allow them to advance.

 

 

Division 3

After not having a football team - or a school for that matter – since 2001, the Lincoln Hornets came back to action with a bang and made the playoffs. They finished strong with an upset win over Point Loma on the road which is what got them into the post season. Coach Ron Hamamoto pulled off a similar feat with Rancho Bernardo last season (upsetting Poway in the last game and squeaking into the post-season). The Hornets have some great athletes on both sides of the ball and a lot of team speed. On the other hand, Central has to be asking themselves, “What happened?” I know I am after they lost to Brawley 7-0 when the Wildcats were down to their third-string QB. The Spartans have lost three games this season: Christian, Otay Ranch, and Brawley- all playoff teams. Central can score too, they put up at least 37 points in its last three wins. But the Spartans have to take the long bus ride in from El Centro and may still be shellshocked after losing The Bell Game. Prediction: Lincoln moves on to the next round.

 

Get ready for a track meet with huddles. El Capitan coach Ron Burner loves to throw the ball up and down the field… and it doesn’t matter who he has at QB. Last season, he did it with Rian Lindley who was named Section Player of the Year. This season, he inserted Tanner Rust into the spot. Burner sent me an e-mail at the beginning of the season and said, watch out for Rust, he may put up bigger numbers than Lindley. My thought, “Sure, coach. Whatever.”  After Rust’s section record 597-yard, 7-touchdown performance against Santana, in Rust I Trust. The Matadors also have some terrific talent and speed on their team. Mt. Miguel’s QB Aaron Bryant is just a sophomore and Rico Smith is a multi-faceted weapon who is a danger to score whenever he touches the ball, no matter where he is. The Matadors also sling the ball around the field, but have a little more balance to their offense. The Matadors have won the games they are supposed to win all season, and El Cap has dropped some games you’d think they should win (El Cajon Valley comes to mind). Prediction: According to the seedings, Mt. Miguel should win this one, which is why I’m going with the Matadors in a game that could last more than four hours.

 

The Wildcats have to be on Cloud 9 after knocking off Central in the Bell Game with their third-string QB. Once they come down, they have to figure out how to do it again. The good news, they get to play at home, as the Imperial Valley League Champs, and they will have a raucous crowd on their side. The Aztecs have enjoyed a nice season, but have played a relatively soft schedule and have not seen the kind of hostile environment they will face on Friday night. Prediction: Brawley should win regardless of whom they can get to play QB. 

 

 Not exactly sure how Monte Vista sneaked into the playoffs and not exactly sure how St. Augustine got this high of a seed, to be honest. The Monarchs edged out Kearny because the selection committee thought they played a tougher schedule – which may be true. But they got in despite having a losing record (Kearny was 5-4) so we didn’t even have them on our radar. Congrats to them for turning things around after a tumultuous season last year. That’s what the Saints are going to have to do this post-season: turn things around. The Saints have looked nothing like the back-to-back Division III Champs that they are (not having a Forcier at QB will do that to ya) and they have made a lot of mistakes at key times and let games slip away. Still, they have a decent running game with Daniel Butler and their defense has shown some strength when they have needed it. Prediction: The Saints should have enough to advance to the second round.

 

Division 4  (First Round games start November 23)

 

 

Division 5

Olympian, in its first season of varsity football, gets into the post-season. The Eagles won their first two games and haven’t won since – losing to schools who are much bigger. After winning five of its first six, Holtville has lost three in a row. Prediction: Look for the Vikings streak to end.

 

La Jolla Country Day really beefed up its schedule this season in an effort to get tougher for this time of the year.  The Torreys took their lumps, but they won the Pacific League and showed their willing to go up against anyone in Division V. Mountain Empire lost four of its last five games, but a win over Vincent Memorial helped them get into the post-season. Prediction: The Torreys should have no problems moving on.

 

The Eagles and Scots look to be pretty evenly matched. They both took their lumps against more established programs like Country Day, and beat up on teams like Calipatria. Prediction: Will take Vincent Memorial to move on. 

The Imperial Tigers played a pretty tough schedule and won their last four games, scoring more than 40 points each time. Julian has also won four straight and put up some big numbers in the process. Prediction: Look for Imperial to outscore, and shut down, the Eagles.